Shoshone, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

542
FXUS65 KVEF 050813
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
113 AM PDT Mon May 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures and thunderstorm activity
continue today for much of the area. Once this weather system moves
out, warmer and drier conditions are expected to take hold, with
well above average temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight.

Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms across much of the
forecast area today. The center of the upper level low will track
east into Arizona, resulting in northerly flow aloft over the
region. PWATs remain over 200 percent of normal in Clark, Lincoln,
Mohave, and most of San Bernardino counties, which coincides with
the area of greatest confidence for storm activity later this
morning and afternoon. There is a good amount of instability as CAPE
increases to the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and surface to 6 km shear
increases to over 40 knots in the afternoon and evening. Once again,
the main concerns moderate rainfall and gusty outflow winds of
around 40 mph. As seen in storms over the last two days, above
normal moisture for this time of year has allowed the most organized
storms to produce several tenths of an inch of precipitation. Higher
terrain should be favored for storm development and therefore have
greatest precipitation totals due to enhanced orographic uplift.
This appears especially true in Mohave County, where precipitation
totals approach half an inch in the eastern part of the county.
Convective activity will slow down and shift east with the center of
the low overnight.

Besides storms, gusty northerly winds develop in northern Inyo and
Esmeralda counties today. High temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees
below average for this time of year in the eastern half of the
forecast area. This means highs in the low 70s for the Las Vegas
Valley and Colorado River Valley. Areas further to the west
including Esmeralda, Inyo, and western San Bernardino counties
should be 5 to 10 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

A period of quieter weather begins Tuesday as the strong trough of
low pressure that brought us all of the active weather these past few
days moves off to the east. A few showers could linger on Tuesday in
Mohave County. Subsequently, a building ridge will slingshot our
temperatures from well below normal to well above normal by the end
of the week. Ensembles are in remarkable agreement on temperatures
in Las Vegas reaching the mid-upper 90s by Saturday with a 10%
chance of reaching 100. No significant winds or precipitation are
expected beyond Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Dry
conditions are expected overnight through early tomorrow morning
before the threat of showers and thunderstorms moves back into the
valley.  A few showers will be possible after 15Z, but a better
chance of showers and storms is expected between 19Z and 00Z.  A few
showers may also linger into the evening.  Prevailing winds through
the TAF period should remain less than 10 knots, although a few
higher gusts will be possible in any storms tomorrow afternoon.
Skies will fill back in overnight and are expected to be BKN to OVC
through the day tomorrow with bases falling to 5kft to 7kft by mid-
morning.  CIGs could fall below 5kft tomorrow afternoon in and near
thunderstorm activity.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...The Las Vegas area TAF
site will see conditions similar to those described above for Harry
Reid, except the precipitation in the late morning may affect KVGT
beginning around 18Z.  Elsewhere, winds at KBIH will be northerly
with intermittent gustiness through tomorrow evening.  At KDAG,
gusty winds will persist through tonight before decreasing tomorrow
morning and afternoon.  Winds will increase out of the west once
again tomorrow evening. In the Lower Colorado River Valley, a few
showers are possible during the morning, before a more pronounced
area of showers and storms potentially moves through during the
afternoon and early evening.  Most areas will see skies BKN to OVC
through the TAF period with bases remaining 8kft to 10kft through
tonight, falling to 5kft to 8kft tomorrow.  The exception is in the
Owens Valley, including KBIH, where CIGs should begin to lift
tomorrow afternoon and scatter out by the evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Berc
AVIATION...Planz

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